კომენტარები და ინფო რუსეთ-საქართველოს ომზე

Druides · Post by **Druides** » 16 აპრ 2009, 17:18

Tamari-ch.
აი ეხლა გვასწავლოს მიშამ პარტიზანული ომი და ქალებიც წავიყვანოთ ჯარში კარგი სნაიპერები არიან ქალები ხოდა მოუწყოთ ერთი კარგი ომი......შევქმნათ მილიონ კაციანი პარტიზანული დაჯგუფება ყველა გავიწვიოთ ყველა 18-50 წლამდე

დათო · Post by **დათო** » 17 აპრ 2009, 14:34

EURASIA DAILY MONITOR
April 16, 2009

Russian Forces Deploying for Possible Action in Georgia

By Pavel Felgenhauer

Last week Georgian opposition parties prepared to mount street protests to force President Mikhail Saakashvili to resign, while Russian forces began military exercises in the Caucasus that might be a direct preparation for an intervention in Georgia -in response to the country being further destabilized. Massive rallies by opposition supporters have not forced Saakashvili to yield and tension is mounting in Tbilisi (EDM, April 14). The possibility that radical elements on either side of the political divide in Georgia might provoke violence is high, while Russia seems to be ready to intervene to defend a brotherly Christian Orthodox Georgian nation from the Saakashvili regime, which it considers as an ultimate enemy. After the war with Georgia last August, President Dmitry Medvedev declared in an interview with Italian RAI TV, "For us president Saakashvili does not exist, he is a political corpse" (www.kremlin.ru, September 2, 2008). While in a recent BBC interview, Medvedev reiterated: "We love and value the Georgian people. I do not want to have any relations with president Saakashvili and will not communicate with him. But if as the result of democratic processes power in Georgia changes, we are ready for discussions" (www.kremlin.ru, March 29).

It is inappropriate for a leader of a small neighboring nation, who has been officially pronounced by Moscow as a "political corpse," to remain in power. As the Georgian opposition was gathering force, the Russian military were already on the move. The Russian Black Sea Fleet left Sevastopol, Crimea in force, lead by its flagship missile cruiser "Moskva." The Georgian Foreign Minister Grigol Vashadze accused Russia of "continuing aggressive policies" by deploying warships and reinforcing its troops in Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Vashadze expressed the hope that Russia "will not dare a new aggression against Georgia, since this will put it against the entire civilized world" (Novosti-Gruzia, April 11). Russian military officials said that the deployment of troops and warships was part of routine military exercises, while the Georgian reaction was described as "hysterical and provocative" (RIA-Novosti, April 11, 13).

It is important that the Russian military acknowledges its mobilization and forward deployment of troops and ships. At present, it is impossible to know precisely how many additional army units have been moved within striking distance of Georgian territory. However, the composition of the naval force that disembarked from Sevastopol is not secret, since the Ukrainian authorities must be informed. It seems to be larger than the force that was deployed against Georgia last August. Four large amphibious landing craft left Sevastopol last week, while in August 2008 only two were reportedly deployed to insert a regiment of marines into Abkhazia in the small port of Ochamchira, close to the border with Georgia (Vlast, August 18). The marines were later deployed in the invasion of Western Georgia.

Before the war in August, the Georgian navy was small, armed only with old ships and not ready for serious action. First Deputy Defense Minister Batu Kutelia (now Georgia's ambassador in Washington) told EDM last November that all seaworthy Georgian navy ships were moved at the start of the war from their main base in Poti, and relocated south to Batumi. The Russian navy announced it sunk a Georgian "missile ship" during a naval encounter after it attempted to attack the Black Sea flotilla (Interfax, August 10).

Kutelia says the Georgian Defense Ministry denies knowledge of such an encounter. Georgia did have two small guided missile ships: an old Soviet vessel "Tbilisi" and an even older French-build ship "Dioskuria." Both were left stranded in Poti and sunk in port by the occupying Russian army. Recently the wreckage of these ships has been auctioned off for $61,000 for salvage as scrap metal to clear the Poti harbor (Interfax, April 3). In the view of the Georgian Ministry of Defense, the naval encounter reported by the Russian navy last August was either a propaganda ploy, or simply a delusion.

After the war, Georgia disbanded its navy, handing over its surviving ships to the local coast guard. The Russian naval flotilla lead by "Moskva" will not find any opposition at sea, but the deployment of a large amphibious force formed of thousands of marines armed with heavy weapons on board is a threatening sight. The low capacity narrow roads leading from Russia into Georgia (one into Abkhazia and another leading into South Ossetia) create immense logistical problems in rapidly deploying large military contingents into Georgia if Moscow opts for a "humanitarian intervention" to bring about "regime change." The insertion of a sizable marine force with heavy weapons was used last August to bypass the clogged up overland routes and this could prove important again. The Russian military knew beforehand the exact timing of its pre-arranged invasion and fully controlled the pre-war armed provocations by the South Ossetian forces, whereas in the present crisis the situation is much more volatile.

Saakashvili and his ministers have been expressing confidence that the present Russian military deployments are a game of bluff, and that Moscow will not risk an attack that hinders the "resetting" of its relations with Washington (Novosti-Gruzia, April 2). But from Moscow's perspective only a tacit acceptance by the United States of Russia's dominance of the South Caucasus and control of energy transit routes from the Caspian and Central Asia is a prerequisite of any "reset." Washington's acceptance of Russia's dominance over these regions might be the unspoken precondition for a genuine improvement in bilateral relations.

დათო · Post by **დათო** » 17 აპრ 2009, 14:34

Tamari-ch. · Post by **Tamari-ch.** » 17 აპრ 2009, 18:14

გადავრჩებით?

lama · Post by **lama** » 17 აპრ 2009, 18:16

Tamari-ch. wrote:გადავრჩებით?

სენ როგორ გგონია?

Tamari-ch. · Post by **Tamari-ch.** » 17 აპრ 2009, 18:18

მაქვს იმედი -

პატრიარქის სიტყვები მაძლევს იმედის საფუძველს...

lama · Post by **lama** » 17 აპრ 2009, 18:22

Tamari-ch. wrote:მაქვს იმედი -

პატრიარქის სიტყვები მაძლევს იმედის საფუძველს...

+1

Archil · Post by **Archil** » 17 აპრ 2009, 19:28

lama wrote:
Tamari-ch. wrote:მაქვს იმედი -

პატრიარქის სიტყვები მაძლევს იმედის საფუძველს...
+1

++111

Wanderer · Post by **Wanderer** » 18 აპრ 2009, 13:14

თუ რამის ქნა უნდათ იზამენ მაისის დასაწყისამდე...

ისე როგორც თქვეს სამხედრო ექსპერტებმა ის რუსული ძალები, რომლებიც დღეს იმყოფებიან საქართველოს ტერიტორიაზე არაა საკმარისი თბილისის ასაღებად და მითუმეტეს მთელი საქართველოს ოკუპაციისათვის...

მე მაინც მეეჭვება რომ რამე ქნან. უბრალოდ ფსიქოლოგიური ზეწოლაა, რასაც უნდა გავუძლოთ!

ლეონტი · Post by **ლეონტი** » 09 მაი 2009, 22:33

დათო · Post by **დათო** » 18 მაი 2009, 18:42

აუცილებლად წაიკითხეთ - დასავლელი დიპლომატები (ყოფილი ელჩები საქართველოში) საუბრობენ ახალი რუსული შემოტევის საფრთხეზე:

RADIO FREE EUROPE/RADIO LIBERTY
May 18, 2009

Ex-Ambassador Says 'Evidence Mounting' of New Russian Offensive in Georgia

In a recent opinion piece in "The New York Times," three former diplomats called on the United States to lead efforts to prevent a "new tragedy" in Georgia. Citing Moscow's military buildup in the country and its resentment over the "unfinished business" of the August 2008 Russia-Georgia war, the authors -- former U.S. Ambassadors to Georgia William Courtney and Kenneth Yalowitz, and Denis Corboy, the former European Commission ambassador to Georgia -- argue that the West must step in to prevent a fresh escalation of violence. Corboy was recently in Tbilisi, where he spoke to RFE/RL Georgian Service correspondent Nino Gelashvili.

RFE/RL: What inspired you and your two fellow former ambassadors to write the opinion piece for "The New York Times"?

Denis Corboy: What we felt, from putting everything together, were indications that Russia could be preparing for another conflict when it suits their agenda -- but probably in the latter part of the summer this year. We hope we're wrong, but we were so alarmed at the evidence that we decided to try to write a message. This concern, by the way, has even heightened since we wrote this piece.

RFE/RL: Why do you think it is heightened?

Corboy: The evidence is mounting. You're aware, of course, of the Russian army being on the border of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. But if you look at the hardware they have, it's not border-keeping hardware, it's more war hardware. If we look at the deployment of the Russian Black Sea Fleet, we see types of equipment there which we find strange.

Then put all this together with the rhetoric -- starting off with the gross exaggeration of the danger to Russia caused by the Partnership for Peace NATO exercise [currently under way in Georgia], which is an annual event which Russia knows very well doesn't pose any danger. Then there is the rather new, negative attitude toward the Eastern Partnership, which as you know is a voluntary arrangement with the European Union which concerns matters like visas, trade, and improving the lives of people.

It's an alarming situation, and what we felt was that the international community might not be fully aware of how dangerous it could be. And if you look at the internal Georgian situation, and the domestic crisis here, the people within Georgia don't seem to be aware that what Georgia could be facing -- and looks to us as if it is facing -- is the most serious crisis since independence in 1991.

Caspian Grab?

RFE/RL: What is Russia's aim in Georgia? Does it simply want to maintain its sphere of influence?

Corboy: We feel that there is a Russian objective -- and a very important one -- to gain control over energy from the Caspian on both sides of the sea. They also want to have a political veto on the politics, particularly foreign policy, of the countries of the South Caucasus.

Our feeling is that when [U.S. President] Barack Obama works on the "reset" button, particularly at the July 6-8 meeting in Moscow, a red line needs to be drawn for our Russian friends with regard to manipulating the situation in Georgia in a way that would lead to another conflict.

This is obviously not as important as issues like Pakistan and Afghanistan, getting nuclear disarmament talks going, Iran, the Middle East, Korea. All these things are very important. But we should not allow Russia to trade these things against regaining control over its own back garden here. And that is why we're sounding the alarm.

'Red Line'

RFE/RL: You mentioned a red line. What would happen to Russia if that line is crossed? What is the West capable of?

Corboy: Russia would have to be made aware, absolutely clearly, that crossing that red line would mean that the reset button could not continue. It's a very difficult thing to elevate the Georgian situation to that degree.

If Russia decides it can risk another adventure here this summer, there would of course be outrage in the international community, there would be enormous protests, and all that. But Russia must realize in advance that they would pay a higher price than what they had to pay for last August's tragic events in South Ossetia.

RFE/RL: You think that the price was not high enough after the August events.

Corboy: Let's not go into the origin of the August events, because I see it as a train crash happening in slow motion. Everybody knew that Russia was preparing something, and we knew that there were difficulties for the Georgian villagers, and so forth. Remember that it was part of the Russian strategy, going right back to 2006, to proceed toward this, and this was the opportunity that they got.

It will now take very little for Russia to find a similar pretext, with their troops on the border, with minor incidents [with Georgians soldiers] happening virtually every day. It's very easy now that the incidents will not be with the Abkhaz or the South Ossetians -- they will be with Russian troops, and it's very easy for that to escalate. Ideally, they would like to be able to blame Georgia for bringing them into another conflict.

So we are raising the alarm to remind policymakers, particularly in Washington, that this is a very important part of the reset button. A hallmark of both American and European policy since the end of the Soviet Union has been to protect and give security to the independent countries that are now in existence. We're committed to keeping them independent, and to protecting their independence. If possible, we must find a way to give Georgia more security.

'Georgian' Politics

RFE/RL: Why do you think the Russian threat is not appreciated in Georgia? Do you believe it's tied to the current standoff between the government and the opposition?

Corboy: I find it very sad, but I think people are in denial that this danger exist. If we are correct about our assessment of the danger in Georgia -- and a lot of people agree with the assessment -- then there should be no space for the domestic turmoil here. We should be having national solutions, and the people should be thinking first of the country, not their party, or their particular ambitions.

Because when we look at the alternatives to the present regime -- whatever you say about it -- what is the alternative? This is not realistic politics, to say that you will not talk to the elected president of the country until he resigns, and not telling the people what government you would put in place. That is not democratic politics.

What worries us all is the tradition that Georgia has, that for the first two presidents they have had since independence, they have changed them through the streets. And we hope that that will not try to happen again.

RFE/RL: What potential do you see for political change in Georgia?

Corboy: The most important thing is to initiate, as rapidly as possible, the reforms that everybody accepts have to be carried out. Then there should be parliamentary elections, and then maybe you could persuade the president in two years' time to hold a referendum on the question of the presidency. But you must return to constitutional government. And the most important part of that constitutional government, to my mind, are the reforms.

It has to begin with a dialogue, but it has to move very quickly from a dialogue to action.

If everybody would appreciate the danger the country is really in...those of us in the commentariat out there aren't making this up. The future of the Georgian state is in grave danger. And they have to wake up to that fact and, appropriately, think of the country.

That's my feeling. I'm sorry, I feel strongly about it. But I think the theater in the streets is not helping the international community to focus on Georgia as I think it must.Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty Â© 2009 RFE/RL, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

qvevri · Post by **qvevri** » 18 მაი 2009, 19:10

ისა ვინმემ იაპონური არ იცის?

აცაბაცა

სერიოზნად ტუ გინდა მყავ ერთი ნაცნობი!!!

ლეონტი · Post by **ლეონტი** » 18 მაი 2009, 20:54

qvevri
რაო და The future of the Georgian state is in grave danger. And they have to wake up to that fact and, appropriately, think of the country.
საქართველოს როგორც ქვეყნის მომავალი დიდი საფრთხის ქვეშ დგასო.
ოდა უნდა გამოფხიზლდნენ და შესაბამისად მოიქცნენო.
მაგრამ შენც ხო იცი რომა...

დათო · Post by **დათო** » 19 მაი 2009, 13:04

qvevri

მე არა მაქვს დრო ვთარგმნო სტატიები. თუ ინგლისური ენა იცის ადამიანთა ნაწილმა და არა 100%-მა, ეს არ არის მიზეზი იმისთვის, რომ არ დავდო მნიშვნელოვანი ინფორმაცია ინგლისურ ენაზე.

მოკლე შინაარსი:

აშშ-ს 2-მა და ევროკავშირის 1-მა ყოფილმა ელჩებმა საქართველოში გამოაქვეყნეს ერთობლივი სტატია, სადაც საუბრობენ იმაზე, რომ ახალი რუსული თავდასხმის საფრთხე რეალურია.
ეს არის ერთერთ მათგანთან (ევროკავშირის ყოფილ ელჩთან) ინტერვიუ. იგი საუბრობს იმაზე, რომ რუსული ჯარების კონცენტრირება, ამ რუსული ჯარების ტექნიკური აღჭურვილობა (თავდასხმითი ტიპის), რუსული შავი ზღვის ფლოტის მობილიზაცია და რუსული საინფორმაციო კამპანია მიუთითებს იმაზე, რომ რუსეთმა შესაძლოა სცადოს თავდასხმა საქართველოს ოკუპაციის მიზნით.
ასევე ამბობს, რომ დასავლეთის რეაქცია 2008 წლის აგვისტოს ომზე არ იყო საკმარისად ძლიერი, და ეს კიდევ უფრო ზრდის რუსული აგრესიის საფრთხეს.
ის ამბობს, რომ მათ უნდა სცადონ მიაწოდონ დასავლელ პოლიტიკოსებს ინფორმაცია ამ საფრთხის სერიოზულობის თაობაზე და რომ არც ქართული საზოგადოება აცნობიერებს ვიტარების სიმძიმეს.

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